SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 9/10/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6720/10
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6791 SUP 6640
OCT EOM STRADDLE 6602/6891
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6749
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 6655
DAILY MARKET STRUCUTRE - BALANCE 6741/6803
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6780/70
DAILY RANGE RES 6860 SUP 6745
2 SIGMA RES 6918 SUP 6688
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18.5
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST/REJECT OF WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
This generation thrives in an era of abundant liquidity, as Mario Draghi aptly describes it. It’s also a generation of Momentum Junkies. The essence of momentum lies in diversifying between alpha and beta, yet Momentum Junkies often chase beta.
In global macro, 2023 has been a year dominated by beta rather than alpha. Few have the patience or creativity to anticipate the next move in the market, but being long on beta across various forms has proven profitable—and likely will continue to do so.
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is particularly painful—not just losing money, but watching others make “easy money” while you’re sidelined. If the market aims to deceive the majority, expect a step-function trade: a significant upward or downward move, with upward being more probable. This is why long volatility trades can succeed; convexity can yield rewards.
Inflation: A Basket Problem
Inflation isn’t a singular, absolute figure—it’s about what’s in your personal inflation basket versus Core PCE. Governments treat inflation as universal, but it’s far from that. Official CPI, often used in labor contracts, creates an illusion of protection against inflation. However, this protection is partial, and negative compounding erodes it over time—especially damaging during periods of high inflation, like 2021.
Consider the disparity in compensation: an IBD associate in 2024/25 earns less than even the “weakest” Lehman associates did in 2007. Today’s average front-office associate salary is $184k, compared to Lehman’s $311k back then. That’s deflation.
Ken Griffin may assert tariffs inflation isn’t reflected in prices, and he’s probably correct, but the focus should remain on individual baskets. If your basket includes private school fees, luxury cars, insurance, and whiskey, you’re likely feeling inflation—but your assets are inflating too. If your portfolio is up 20% on MSCI World while inflation rises 15%, you’re effectively deflating by 5%.
The Hockey Stick Phenomenon
Momentum Junkies aren’t fazed by inflation; they focus on hockey stick charts—price lines that suddenly surge after a calm period. Copper, gold, palladium—these assets exemplify the hockey stick trend. Stay invested in what you favor and ride the momentum. When a dip occurs, capitalize on it.
The challenge is that low-income groups can’t benefit from the hockey stick. Inflation disproportionately impacts them, eroding their purchasing power.
The Fed and Market Dynamics
The Federal Reserve currently plays a less pivotal role. Hiking rates by 75 bps didn’t trigger a recession. Transmission mechanisms aside, the evidence is clear. Markets, not central banks, are the true forcing mechanism for policymakers. While USDJPY hasn’t fully reached that point, the direction is correct.
The overarching theme is that perception of fundamentals matters more than fundamentals themselves. Success isn’t about the cards you hold but the cards on the table. To profit, read the market, understand consensus, and do the opposite.
Healthcare stocks, for instance, present a mean-reversion opportunity but also align with TACO trades—Trade Trump And Clone Opportunities.
Ride the Fastest Horses
Focus on the fastest-moving assets. Palladium’s breakout is another example of an asset responding to debasement. Gold is performing exceptionally well: 44% annualized return, 2.4x Sharpe ratio, 8% peak-to-trough drawdown, and zero drawdown from breakout entry. You’re not too late. When bubbles emerge, seize the opportunity—add fuel to the fire.
The DXY chart remains crucial. While the base case suggests a range-bound scenario, it’s worth monitoring closely for potential breakout signals.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% and 72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!