顶部在：兑现我们对加密货币的看涨观点

2023 年初，我们撰写了一系列研究加密市场的报告，提供了比 BCA 或当时更广泛的投资市场的共识更看涨的立场。

• 从那时起，比特币价格翻了两番，共识已经转向我们的观点。机构投资者现在正在接受加密货币，围绕养老基金分配和比特币价格目标的讨论达到了极端水平。

• 但现在是参加的合适时机吗？我们认为不会。模因币的激增、创纪录的比特币 ETF 流入和散户投机表明过度乐观，这在历史上是一个警告信号。

• 财政政策低于预期、增长放缓和通胀下降也可能在未来几个月为加密货币带来不利的宏观环境。

• 虽然我们长期看好比特币，但我们认为现在是获利了结并等待更具吸引力的切入点的审慎时机。

• 为了对冲金融市场完全接受荒谬的可能性，我们推出了流动性陷阱 （LTRAP）——一种模因币，毫不夸张地说，它是您流动性的陷阱。

一句话：我们目前正在兑现看涨的比特币观点。一旦比特币跌至接近 75,000 美元，我们将成为更愿意的买家。

我们对比特币的前景持乐观态度，并相信它在多元化的投资组合中发挥着重要作用。话虽如此，市场情绪很重要，即使是最好的资产也不应该以任何价格购买。因此，我们认为现在开始获利并推迟任何进一步的投资是明智的。当价格接近 75,000 美元时，我们更倾向于再次购买。

There are two key risks to our perspective:

The first is that Trump may fulfill his campaign promise and establish the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which betting markets estimate has a 12% chance of occurring. To clarify, this Reserve will not entail purchasing additional coins. The US government currently possesses approximately 200,000 bitcoins acquired through law enforcement seizures. The Reserve would solely commit the federal government to retain these coins. Nevertheless, the news would be slightly positive in the short term, though we believe it would signify the peak of the cycle.

The second risk is that, contrary to our expectations, we may have entered a new era where memecoins serve as the primary means of raising capital. A scenario where all financial regulations are completely disregarded, allowing anyone with a few social media followers to raise billions easily.